Betting On New York NFL Team Records

The 2017 NFL schedule has been released and that means that New York football fans can check out the win/loss predictions for each NFL team in New York. The oddsmakers have set the over/under record projections for the Buffalo Bills, New York Jets, and New York Giants so if you are a fan of any of them, you now have the option of betting on New York NFL team records at the top sportsbooks.

NFL Win/Loss Betting Trends

Those who regularly bet on the NFL would probably tell you that betting on the NFL win/loss betting trends is similar to betting on the stock market. This is because it’s true more times than not that the best teams from a year before, likely won’t be as good the next year, and the same goes for the vice versa. This trend is called regression toward the mean which means that if somethings has an extreme initial measurement, it is likely that it will be an average measurement on the second go round; and if it was extreme on the second, it was probably average on the first.

With the schedules now released, New Yorkers can now put money on whether or not the predicted number of wins that have been decided by the oddsmakers will be over or under that figure. They look at the strength of schedule, the team’s roster, the team’s strengths and weaknesses and that sets their number. That being said, if you take a look at the predicted records of the Jets, Bills, and Giants, it’s clear that the oddsmakers have a firm grasp on that regression to the mean.

After the Giants won 11 games in 2016, they are now projected to win just 9, while the lowly Jets, who won just 5 games in 2016, are projected to win 5.5 in 2017. The Bills are the one anomaly in this theory but they had a 7 and 9 record in 2016 so they were kind of right in the middle of the pack. They are actually predicted to win only 6 games this coming NFL season and are the only team that had a losing record in 2016 that is projected to be even worse.

Why Is This The Case?

For teams with a good record like the Giants, the predicted regression is because of what’s called the ceiling effect. The Giants have a great roster and will likely be competing for the playoffs and a division title this season but the odds of the Giants winning more than 12 games is tough to justify due to all of the surrounding circumstance. They are in one of the toughest divisions in football, their quarterback is 36 years old and their run game didn’t improve during the offseason. Good teams show a steady trend of winning fewer games after a big year.

As far as the improvement of bad teams is concerned, the nine worst NFL teams from 2016 are all expected to improve this year, and the New York Jets are one of them. Now obviously all of these teams will not fall within that prediction but it’s almost certain that most of them will.

For reference, in 2015, there were a whopping seven teams that won at least 11 games. Only two ended up winning more games the next year, with three of them ending up having losing records. The 11 teams that won less than seven games, only four of them finished with a worse record. All others improved and three had double-digit wins.

Again, wants you to know that none of this is a sure thing, which is the case with all betting ventures but the trends are always a good helper when you’re betting on New York NFL team records in 2017.

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